We may just have our first MAJOR storm of the winter upon us. It has been a bumpy ride the last few days tracking this system and the models have been battling it out on where this LOW will set up and who is going to be the big winner in this upcoming weekend storm...
Teleconnections:
I always like to review the teleconnections before we get into the meat of everything else. I am a little concerned about the NAO being in a positive state. The NAO being in a positive state tells me that we have no blocking HIGH to our North that will steer this system close to the coast. However, as you see below, we have a 50/50 LOW that will act as a blocking HIGH that will prevent this system from steering out to sea.
The next we have the AO which WAS in a negative state and we have plenty of cold arctic air in place is now headed towards a positive state. This means that, when this storm arrives, we won't have that cold air already in place, it will come in during the storm which will play a major factor on how this whole thing plays out in the end.
And finally we have the PNA. The PNA is in a positive state which is a good thing. However, looking at the maps, I don't see the PNA being that positive, it is almost a very progressive flow. This in turn is hurting the East-coast by having that cold air push down from the North (See below).
Right now we don't have the ridge out in the West which is not creating a big enough trough in the East to allow that cold air to be in place before this storm arrives. The black line I drew is more of what type of pattern you want with this upcoming storm. The current pattern indicated in the red allows a small trough to form more in theNorth and West and eventually filters towards the East but not before the storm already arrives.
The Model Comparison:
GFS(12z)
CMC(12z)
NAM(12z)
EURO(12z)
If you look at all 4 models I have shown here, every model has a slightly different idea where it wants to set up the LOW. This is the major problem right now. The two I want to focus on is the GFS and EURO because I put my faith into those two than any other right now. The GFS has the LOW further North and more powerful and the EURO has the LOW a little further South and not as powerful.
Possible Scenarios:
This is scenario #1. The LOW drifts further North and exits right around Virginia Beach and Maryland which causes temperatures issues for Central and Southern New Jersey were a mixture of rain and snow will occur. Further North and West will be snow and will get plenty of it.
This is scenario #2. The LOW tracks further South and exits off the coast around the OBX. The LOW is South enough that it will not impact the NorthEast that much, South Jersey will have the greatest chance of snow but it will be very light due to the storm not being as powerful.
This is scenario #3. The LOW would exit off the coast around the OBX and continue to hug the coast and phasing with the Northern stream and bombing off the coast and giving much of NJ a great snow storm. Extreme Southern parts of NJ will suffer due to the warm ocean temps and the cold air not filtering down in time.
I am leaning towards the first scenario. I believe the EURO has the right idea with the strength of the storm and I believe the GFS placing the LOW off the coast around Virginia Beach will be right around the spot it happens. The surface temps for much of central New Jersey and South Jersey will be too warm. You may see snow falling but it won't be sticking. More North and West will make out in this storm.
As always, this is my current thinking with the latest models infront of me. A lot can change in the next 24-48hrs. Check back regularly for continued coverage!
8:34 PM
Jeff Beyerle
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